Sales of legal cannabis in the United States are projected to grow by 14% in 2023, according to a recent report from Colorado-based cannabis industry market analysis firm BDSA. In an updated five-year global legal cannabis market forecast, the company reports that global spending on legal cannabis increased by 4.8% to $32 billion in 2022. BDSA projects that the global cannabis market will see a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.2% from 2022 to 2027, resulting in a total worldwide regulated cannabis market size of $59.6 billion by 2027.
The U.S. legal cannabis market has shown significant growth across the industry as more and more states legalize adult-use cannabis and medical marijuana. And while the industry’s growth slowed in 2022 in response to market conditions including rising inflation and economic uncertainty, BDSA expects the U.S. legal weed market to again show significant growth this year, projecting a 14% increase in the market in 2023.
“Legal cannabis spending slowed significantly in 2022 due to rapid price declines across all markets,” Roy Bingham, co-founder and CEO of BDSA, said in a statement from the company. “Despite this, our updated forecast predicts strong growth in the U.S. driven by developing markets, particularly the adult-use markets of Missouri, New Jersey and New York.”
Currently, 21 states have legalized cannabis for adults, while 37 states, the District of Columbia and three U.S. territories have passed laws to legalize the medicinal use of marijuana. Additionally, 11 states permit the use of low-THC cannabis formulations for medicinal purposes. Only Idaho and Nebraska continue to prohibit all forms of cannabis.
Some Mature Cannabis Markets Contracted In 2022
The U.S. cannabis market posted rapid growth during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic as lockdowns kept consumers home and dispensaries were designated as essential businesses in many states. But last year marked the first decline in overall cannabis spending in some mature cannabis markets in the United States. In the West, early cannabis policy reform adopters California, Colorado, Nevada and Oregon saw a combined drop in spending on legal adult-use cannabis of 16.5% in 2022, according to the updated report. BDSA expects most mature cannabis markets in the U.S. to return to positive growth in 2024, although more slowly through 2027 than in the years leading up to the pandemic.
Newer legal cannabis markets showed strong growth in 2022, despite the decline seen in more mature markets. BDSA also projects new legal adult-use cannabis markets to launch by 2027, predicting a start of legal sales in Maryland in 2024 and in Florida and Ohio in 2025. The launch of new recreational marijuana cannabis markets is also possible in Minnesota and Hawaii by 2027, BDSA notes, but the company does not expect to see federal cannabis legalization during the five-year forecast period.
Brian Vicente, founding partner of the cannabis law firm Vicente LLP, agreed that emerging markets will help fuel the growth of the legal cannabis industry in the upcoming years.
“The future remains bright for the cannabis industry in the United States. Despite a recent setback at the polls, with Oklahoma voters shooting down legalization this month, we are still seeing other domestic markets expand and commence sales,” Vicente wrote in an email. “This includes significant revenue growth in newly-legal cannabis markets like Missouri and New Jersey, and also emerging medical markets like Mississippi. With additional states like Florida and Ohio looking likely to legalize in the next several years, we can expect continued expansion in cannabis sales.”
By 2027, U.S. sales of adult-use cannabis are forecasted to contribute 78% of the total spending on legal cannabis worldwide, up from 64% in 2022. U.S. legal cannabis spending is expected to grow at a CAGR of 11.3%, from $26.1 billion in 2022 to $44.5 billion in 2027, with the industry’s growth driven primarily by the New York, Florida, New Jersey and California recreational marijuana markets.
Globally, cannabis markets outside the U.S. and Canada are forecast to grow at a CAGR of 40% to $9.5 billion in 2027, up from $1.8 billion in 2022. BDSA forecasts the Canadian market will see overall growth of 12% this year, increasing to a $5.7 billion market by 2027 at a CAGR of 6.3%. New adult-use markets in Germany and Mexico are expected to be the primary drivers of global growth, while existing limited medical cannabis programs are expected to expand, particularly in the European Union and Latin America.
Information collected in the “Global Hemp Market by Type” report from Research and Markets, which analyzed the numerous applications of hemp as a textile, food item, construction material, and more. The report projects that the next five years will see the industry’s compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21.6%, suggesting that this percentage will rise because many other countries have legalized industrial hemp, or will do so in the near future.
The report also cites examples of hemp successes seen throughout this year. In terms of application, hemp meal was recently covered as an alternate method of feeding livestock. “Hempseed and hempseed cakes could be used as feed materials for all animal species, according to the scientific opinion of the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) Panel on Additives and Products or Substances Used in Animal Feed, with species-specific differences in the rate of inclusion in the diet,” a Research and Markets press release states. “Hemp oil, as a rich source of essential fatty acids, can be used as a supplement in animal feed, while hemp seeds and hempseed cakes can be used as a fat and protein source in animal diets.”
The report also explains that hemp bast fibers, which are made up of cellulose, hemicellulose, lignin and pectin, also offer many benefits for use in textiles. “The benefits of bast fibers include lighter product weight, lower energy consumption, and a smaller environmental footprint. Bast fibers can be spun and woven and are thus widely used in the textile industry,” Research and Markets states. “Furthermore, bast fibers are far stronger than cotton and do not mildew. Hemp bast fibers have exceptional properties such as strength, durability, and anti-bacterial and anti-fungal properties.”
In addition to an increase in legalization worldwide, the report also cites the increased use of hemp seed and oil in food items and a “rising incidence of Chronic Diseases” to be two main drivers contributing to the rise of hemp. Although, the lasting stigma against hemp and cannabis and some country’s restrictions on industrial hemp continue to hinder its growth.
Other hemp-based reports have also been published recently and anticipate a similar growth for the hemp industry. A report from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) called “Commodities at a glance: Special issue on industrial hemp” that the global hemp market will reach $18.6 billion by 2027. According to UNCTAD economist and report author Marco Fugazza, hemp offers a lot of potential for both established and developing countries. “The growing hemp market offers significant economic opportunities that all countries can capitalize on,” Fugazza said. “As a renewable product, the opportunities are sustainable. This is extremely important as countries try to boost their economies while protecting the environment.”
The UNCTAD report recommends that “governments must clarify its legal status as a non-intoxicant.” Once this has been done, countries can begin to explore the many benefits that hemp plants offer. “Because of its versatility and its functional characteristics, the industrial hemp market holds vast potential in agriculture, textiles, recycling, automotive, furniture, food and beverages, paper, construction materials and personal care,” the UNCTAD report states. Additionally, hemp can be an effective part of crop rotation, which can help maximize the use of land and contribute to increased incomes for farmers.
Hemp for animals and livestock continues to be an argued topic. While hemp as animal feed could reduce stress in cattle, a recent research study showed that it found THC in the systems of cows who ate hemp feed. In September, the state of Idaho halted the sales of CBD pet supplements because “Safe levels of hemp and hemp-derived products in animal feed have not yet been established under federal or state law,” the State Department of Agriculture said.
Cannabis tax revenue in Massachusetts is performing better than projected, over four years into the state’s adult-use market. According to the most recently available data, Massachusetts reported collecting $74.2 million in marijuana excise taxes—much more than the $51.3 million in alcohol excise taxes that were collected.
Alcohol sales continue the downward trend that began two decades ago, according to data collected by Gallup polling, despite a temporary sharp uptick in alcohol sales amid COVID. Analysts have wondered if there is a correlation between cannabis reform and alcohol sales.
The trends seen in Massachusetts are no different. Fortune reports that alcohol excise taxes imposed on each gallon of alcohol produced also remained flat over the last five years, at $0.55 per gallon of wine, and $4.05 per gallon of hard alcohol.
Massachusetts collected over $112 million in adult-use cannabis sales excise tax revenue in 2021—206 percent higher than projected—according to a Monthly Public Meeting presentation from data from the state’s Cannabis Control Commission.
“This number also underscores the entire agency’s tireless efforts, particularly those of our hardworking staff, to thoughtfully regulate a safe, accessible, and effective adult-use marketplace that keeps critical tenets of our mission—public health, public safety, and equity, among others—front of mind,” Commission Executive Director Shawn Collins said in a statement on January 25.
The state charges an excise tax of 10.75 percent on the projected retail price of recreational cannabis in addition to a 6.25 percent state sales tax, plus a local tax of up to three percent.
Cannabis sales are doing much better than anticipated, despite all of the hiccups along the way such as COVID. But analysts say the surge in cannabis sales in Massachusetts comes at no surprise.
Vivien Azer, a Wall Street research analyst and managing director at Cowen who covers the emerging cannabis sector told local news station WCBV that when states convert from medical cannabis to adult-use, it typically leads to a doubling or even tripling of revenues “almost overnight.”
Kicking off recreational cannabis sales in any state is something of a spectacle to be celebrated.
Mikayla Bell, community outreach manager for NETA, one of the largest cannabis retailers in the state. “I think that people are looking for an alternative to make them feel better,” Bell told WCBV. “Oftentimes people are turning to alcohol for relief. And now they found another product with without the hangover, without the calories.”
During the first year of cannabis sales, from November 2018 through 2019, 33 cannabis retailers generated $393.7 million in gross sales. Sales for all of the 2019 calendar year reached $444.9 million.
In 2020, 91 adult-use cannabis retailers tallied $702 million in gross sales, despite being closed for two months due to the pandemic.
Alcohol taxes in Massachusetts could soon see a hike as well. State Representative Kay Khan filed a bill to double the excise taxes on beer, wine and liquor with H 2973. The state spends $2.6 billion each year to combat alcoholism and addiction, and should consider making the industry pay for that themselves.
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• Marijuana Today— Our flagship title, a weekly podcast examining the world of marijuana business and activism with some of the smartest people in the industry and movement.
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These headlines are brought to you by Curaleaf, one of the leading vertically-integrated cannabis operators in the U.S. With legal medical marijuana dispensaries, cultivation sites, and processing facilities all over the United States, Curaleaf has served more than 165,000 medical cannabis patients and looks forward to helping many more long into the future. Swing over to Curaleaf.com to learn more about this very cool company!
Check out our other projects:
• Marijuana Today— Our flagship title, a weekly podcast examining the world of marijuana business and activism with some of the smartest people in the industry and movement.
• Marijuana Media Connect— A service that connects industry insiders in the legal marijuana industry with journalists, bloggers, and writers in need of expert sources for their stories.
Check out our other projects:
• Marijuana Today— Our flagship title, a weekly podcast examining the world of marijuana business and activism with some of the smartest people in the industry and movement.
• Marijuana Media Connect— A service that connects industry insiders in the legal marijuana industry with journalists, bloggers, and writers in need of expert sources for their stories.
2019 has the potential to be remembered as the year when minor cannabinoids really hit the scene. While it’s true that the cannabis market is generally interested in tetrahydrocannabinol (THC), the intoxicating cannabinoid that most marijuana consumers have come to know and love; as well as cannabidiol (CBD); but cannabinoids such as cannabinol (CBN), tetrahydrocannabinolic acid (THCA), along with cannabigerol (CBG) have started to attract attention on their own.
While more research is done for potential health benefits of this trace cannabinoid, THCV-focused products are starting to emerge on the cannabis market.
What Science Says About THCV
Like CBD and THC, this cannabinoid is initially produced by the cannabis plant in its precursor acidic form of tetrahydrocannabivarin acid (THCVA). Cannabigerovarinic acid (CBGV), a central precursor, converts to THCVA, which itself eventually converts into THCV when exposed to heat, or light.
Under a microscope, there’s not much distinguishing THCV and THC, as both share a similar molecular structure, according to Itzhak Kurek, Ph.D., CEO and co-founder of Cannformatics, a Northern California biotech company that uses bioinformatics (a combination of biology, mathematics, engineering, and computer science, among other fields) to improve medical cannabis science.
In fact, research shows that THCV could act as an antagonist against THC, at least in certain cases. A 2015 study published in Sage’s Journal of Psychopharmacology, for instance, found that low doses of THCV inhibited the intoxicating effects of THC. At higher doses, however, the effects of this cannabinoid suddenly became more comparable to THC.
While researchers continue to unearth new information, THCV has demonstrated a potential for the following:
Appetite suppressant: Evidence suggests that, at low doses ranging between 5 and 7.5 milligrams, THCV inhibits appetite by antagonizing the CB1 receptors. A 2015 study found that the effect of it on the CB1 receptors suggested a potential to treating obesity. According to Kurek, the findings of this study suggest that THCV could provide treatment without the risk of side effects found in common anti-obesity drugs, such as depression, anxiety, and insomnia.
Diabetes: In a 2016 study published in Diabetes Care, researchers found that CBD and THCV appeared to help patients with type 2 diabetes maintain tighter glycemic control, which is essential in preventing chronic complications from the condition. Research has also shown that, at moderate to high doses ranging between 10 and 20 milligrams, THCV regulated blood sugar levels and reduced the body’s resistance to insulin.
Epilepsy: THCV has also been researched for its anti-epileptic properties, suggesting that it could also be used to reduce seizures for epileptic patients. A 2015 study published in the Journal of Clinical Pharmacy and Therapeutics, researchers found that THCV showcased anticonvulsant effects, significantly reducing seizure incidences in an in vitro model induced with epileptic activity.
Parkinson’s disease:In a 2011 study on lab mice, researchers found that THCV held antioxidant properties that could prove useful in treating the symptoms and delaying neurodegeneration in Parkinson’s disease.
Schizophrenia: A 2015 study published in the British Journal of Pharmacology, researchers found that this particular cannabinoid enhanced serotonin receptors and demonstrated antipsychotic effects in lab rats, leading the authors to conclude that THCV could provide “therapeutic potential for ameliorating some of the negative, cognitive, and positive symptoms of schizophrenia.”
How is THCV Used by the Cannabis Industry?
While THCV could be beneficial for several health-related conditions, the cannabinoid has yet to receive the attention that THC and CBD have amassed.
One reason is the difficulty in obtaining THCV. While most strains contain high levels of THC or CBD, the levels of THCV are significantly lower.
THCV-rich cultivars can be hard to come by, as most strains contain zero or trace amounts. According to Steep Hill, a U.S.-based cannabis science and technology company, classic varieties of African origin tend to have notable levels of THCV, such as Durban Poison, which has upwards of 0.5% THCV. The cannabis lab also found that rarer strains such as Pineapple Purps have been said to contain significantly higher levels of it, in this specific case about 4%. In other words, currently, there are not many strains that produce significant levels of this minor cannabinoid, creating a market gap and an opportunity.
“In general, any natural compound produced in the plant in low concentrations will be cost-prohibitive due to the low yield recovered during the extraction process,” Kurek explained. “This suggests to opportunity for a breeding program to create THCV-dominant plants.”
California’s Flow Kana markets strains relatively high in tetrahydrocannabivarin (THCV), a lesser-known cannabinoid believed to be effective in suppressing appetite and beneficial for patients with diabetes, epilepsy, Parkinson’s disease and schizophrenia. Most strains have zero to trace amounts of THCV. (Photo courtesy of Flow Kana)
However, a small swell of THCV-centric products are beginning to hit the market.
“We believe there is great healing potential in sun-grown flower that possesses this rare THCV cannabinoid and are honored to play a role in bringing this unique cultivar to market,” said Flow Kana CEO Michael Steinmetz in the release.
The cannabinoid has also made its way into a number of vape products. In February 2019, the THCV-focused brand Doug’s Varin, owned by the Oakland, California-based California Cannabinoids, released two THCV-rich vape pen products: Doug’s Varin Original and Doug’s Varin Relief, both of which contain about 25% to 30% THCV cannabis oil by weight. Doug’s Varin also has a preroll containing flower that has 3% THCV, 10% THC, and 4% CBG, and plans to release THCV capsules and tinctures in the near future.
David Lampach, the co-founder of Doug’s Varin, explained that the company developed a family of THCV-heavy strains, but the original strain is said to have stemmed from a Harlequin cultivar. After about three years of cultivating high-THCV strains, Lampach believes this minor cannabinoid is a “cognitive enhancer” that could be ideal for consumers or patients who are seeking a more energizing and short-lived high.
“You smoke it and a light bulb goes off in your head,” Lampach explained. “In terms of the duration of how long you feel it, the effects are much shorter, at least half the length of THC.”
Doug’s Varin, a brand by California Cannabinoids, was launched in February 2019 to offer tinctures, prerolls, and vape pens high in the cannabinoid tetrahydrocannabivarin (THCV). The vape pens can offer THCV content as high as 30%, the company said. (Photo courtesy of Doug’s Varin)
Another interesting cannabis product that places THCV in the spotlight is Stimulate Tablingual by Level, THCV-enriched sublingual tablets that contain equal levels of THC, THCV, and CBG. As stated on the packaging, this formulation is made using Doug’s Varin’s special THCV-heavy cannabis and is designed to stimulate and energize the mind while also providing a tantalizing buzz, which according to Lampach could make THCV a potential alternative to Adderall and other commonly prescribed amphetamines.
More research is needed to support these purported health benefits, but the initial findings seem to signify that THCV could offer several distinct health benefits that THC does not, as well as a more manageable and social buzz.
Could THCV Become Popular?
Despite the variety of potential benefits that it appears to offer, the current lack of research and limited affordable access to high-THCV strains has kept more cannabis companies from integrating this cannabinoid into their products.
Tristan Watkins, Ph.D., Chief Science Officer at LucidMood, a Boulder, Colorado-based brand of proprietary terpene and botanical formulations, believes that there might be other factors influencing the purported benefits of THCV, including the fact that these high-THCV strains such as Durban Poison all typically come from the African region.
“Unfortunately, a lot of the strains that are naturally high in THCV also have a unique terpene profile as well, so it’s really hard to point THCV as being the only player,” he explained. “When you have a strain that was grown in one part of the world, it probably naturally expresses a completely different composition of these compounds in relation to its environment.”
Tetrahydrocannabivarin (THCV) is a very difficult cannabinoid to obtain. THCV-rich strains are found in African-origin cultivars such as Durban Poison. These plants are also harder to grow and produce lower yields. (Photo by Gina Coleman/Weedmaps)
Another hindrance is that THCV can’t really be sourced from industrial hemp plants, which are federally legal to grow following the passage of the 2018 Farm Bill, making it harder to source than other minor cannabinoids, such as CBG.
“It’s difficult to source, there hasn’t been a major demand so far,” Watkins continued. “It’s also a little difficult to identify because the structure, from a side component, is so close to THC, so you have to run a special analysis to delineate between THC and THCV.”
According to Lampach, there are certain other obstacles preventing THCV-heavy strains from taking a bigger slice of the cannabis market’s fruitful pie, as these plants are both difficult to grow and have lower yields on average. Currently, he stated, high-THCV plant biomass sells for $1,000 per pound, while crude 35% THCV is priced at $30,000 per kilogram.
Nevertheless, there’s still reason to believe that it will become a featured ingredient in cannabis products, especially once it becomes more readily available at a lower price point.
“It’s a really good crossover type of product that can pull people in who don’t currently consume cannabis, because it has a completely different set of effects,” Lampach explained. “I think that ability to pull people into cannabis who otherwise wouldn’t be into cannabis is a big component of its future.”
Feature image: Although found in minuscule amounts in cannabis, the cannabinoid tetrahydrocannabivarin (THCV) is being studied for its potential to suppress appetite and treat chronic medical conditions. (Gina Coleman/Weedmaps)
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